Trumps Griff nach Venezuela: „Wenn das Öl der Preis für Freiheit ist, nehmen sie das in Kauf“

00:00:06: Late last night and early today, at my direction, the United States armed forces conducted an extraordinary military operation in the capital of Venezuela to bring outlawed dictator Nicholas Maduro to justice.

00:00:28: So we are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition.

00:00:37: Yes, what a start for the geopolitical year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the

00:01:27: year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of

00:01:35: the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of.

00:01:49: What do they actually do?

00:01:51: Declare?

00:01:51: Declare?

00:01:52: Declare?

00:01:52: Declare?

00:01:53: Declare?

00:01:54: Declare?

00:01:54: Declare?

00:01:55: Declare?

00:01:56: Declare?

00:01:56: Yes, you will probably

00:01:58: go worse than... You can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else.

00:02:02: But we live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by Strength that is governed by force, that is governed by power.

00:02:14: These are the iron laws of the world that exist since the beginning of time.

00:02:18: Here at Machtprobe, the foreign podcast of the FHZ, we want to talk today on January the tenth about the plans that the Trump government has for Venezuela or not.

00:02:48: Could the spectacular success of Maduro be proved as a pyro-seek?

00:02:53: And what does that mean for the war in Ukraine, the Chinese drugs against Taiwan and security in Europe?

00:02:59: That's what we're talking about today with my dear colleague, Claus Dieter Frankenberger.

00:03:03: Hello, Claus.

00:03:03: Hello, Felix.

00:03:04: Nice that you're here.

00:03:05: I'm

00:03:06: very happy for you.

00:03:06: Let's get started

00:03:07: because the bottom line, the result of the whole story, Nicolas Maduro is gone.

00:03:15: But probably we're right, his regime is still at power, isn't it?

00:03:19: His

00:03:20: regime is still at power and that means that one of Donald Trump's dogmatic statements from the election campaign, from the election campaign, from the past.

00:03:31: He won't change any regime, like George W. Bush did in Iraq and Afghanistan.

00:03:38: At least in this form, he was still intact.

00:03:41: The leader was exiled, arrested, led in a New York court.

00:03:45: But otherwise it was a power demonstration, a demonstration of American military abilities, to the pleasure of the president and everything else we will see.

00:03:57: So the pictures were spectacular in any case.

00:03:59: But Maduro's people are still sitting on the power lever, they still have the power inside.

00:04:05: Let's call this regime Maduro.

00:04:08: two point zero, at the tip of Desi Rodriguez, the interim president, the former vice president.

00:04:13: And also in the second row are known faces of Minister Cabello, Minister of Defense Padino, all further to power.

00:04:21: Chairman of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez.

00:04:24: This is the brother of Daisy, so yes.

00:04:27: the old click on the printer.

00:04:29: Were you surprised that Washington has decided for this group and against the Democratic opposition?

00:04:35: When I say not

00:04:36: really, it may sound a bit arrogant, but actually, I wasn't so surprised.

00:04:43: On the one hand, the United States and Trump have built up pressure over the month.

00:04:49: Military capacities have been combined.

00:04:52: Boats have been eliminated, common sources have been eliminated.

00:04:56: And so on.

00:04:57: But if you always have to ask, what is the goal?

00:05:01: Is the goal to access the resources and to get oil?

00:05:05: He can also work together with an authoritarian regime.

00:05:09: The traumatic experience with the years of the so-called endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

00:05:18: You can't underestimate that.

00:05:20: Therefore, if he can build up so much pressure on the on the Maduro regime, two point zero, as you called it, and they are throwing themselves under it.

00:05:31: Thirty to fifty million Berlin oil, as you have already said, that you want to deliver them.

00:05:35: And then Trump can live quite well with it.

00:05:40: That would be his plan.

00:05:42: And it would still have outstanding effects on other countries.

00:05:47: in the Caribbean, in South America, in Central America, with which he might still have something in

00:05:53: mind.

00:05:53: Yes, we'll talk about all of that.

00:05:55: In any case, I think you just said a very interesting thing.

00:05:57: Namely, if it's about oil, then it's very good with an authoritarian regime, maybe even better.

00:06:03: Because there were reports, for example, of the CIA, that the Democratic opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, did not have the influence and the power to bring the strenght behind and to ensure stability.

00:06:16: And only with stability, let the plans and the demands of Trump be changed.

00:06:22: So, you mean it was power.

00:06:24: politically, what is actually the right decision, you have to say, or do you have

00:06:28: to throw a bus?

00:06:29: That will still be shown.

00:06:31: At some point, of course, the whole thing has to be set up democratically on the pretext.

00:06:37: Vulgo will take part in a election.

00:06:40: The majority of Venezuelans are bravely Manipulated.

00:06:45: choice of twenty-four to twenty-four to Gunsten Madoz.

00:06:47: Not with the regime, but with a strong minority.

00:06:53: But that will be necessary at some point.

00:06:55: To legitimize the situation.

00:06:59: The CIA has said in fact that the regime is better suited to bring down the country's stability.

00:07:05: Stability is needed to reduce this insane investment sum.

00:07:08: Not to let it sink in the Orinoco sum, but to actually do something with it.

00:07:15: The American oil companies.

00:07:17: that should be invested there.

00:07:19: They want legal security, they want physical security.

00:07:22: And you can either reach that by... The country is largely occupied.

00:07:27: I don't think Trump does what he wants.

00:07:30: Or you need forces that can rely on you.

00:07:33: And if the fighting forces, which are not so loyal to Maduro, as you might have thought from the very beginning, have no blood on them, but if they can make a deal with the United States, a pact, so to speak, then it could work in any case for the transition.

00:07:53: Also, we already hear that stability is extremely important, especially for the economic development in order to exploit the oil reserves.

00:08:00: Nicolas Maduro, who was also a bridge builder, who was able to create a consensus between the various power centers, is now gone.

00:08:10: And the question is, how stable is Maduro's two point zero regime?

00:08:14: Certainly, it was probably the most stable option that Trump had, but it doesn't mean that it's really a stable power.

00:08:32: It's a balancing act.

00:08:33: You know, Delci and Jorge Rodriguez are very clever people.

00:08:38: It's a balance act.

00:08:39: Delci and Roche Rodriguez are very clever people.

00:08:42: They are fair political operators.

00:08:44: That's why they are in their current position.

00:08:52: They understand the challenges.

00:08:58: It's really difficult if the USA can't meet the challenges

00:09:04: because there is too much resistance in the regime itself.

00:09:06: It's just that the men with the weapons seem to be in the defensive and they haven't found a good answer to the current dynamics.

00:09:14: that the people with the guns are on the defensive and they don't have a good response to this.

00:09:31: in the days, so to speak.

00:09:35: That was also with the so-called Arab Spring and so on.

00:09:40: That one dictator partly broke the Boat Show after the other.

00:09:45: It's not much better after that.

00:09:48: I don't want to say that.

00:09:51: My point is that the Americans probably said to this regime, whose tips have now been seen about which things we are capable of and what we are also doing, ready to do.

00:10:02: that it is better not to hang yourself out of the window, but to be cooperative, to fulfill the requirements of the Americans, as long as we remain in politics.

00:10:13: But for a long time.

00:10:15: For a long time, a real democratic uprising will not pass from the crisis of Venezuela.

00:10:23: Also about the theme of democratization, I would definitely still talk to you.

00:10:28: But I would like to come back to this point again, that Daisy Rodriguez is just pointed out to the military and the security forces.

00:10:34: That was the reason why Trump left her in her position, because she can basically practice the control.

00:10:40: Do you think she's able to keep the security forces?

00:10:44: behind the scenes.

00:10:46: So what can you really offer

00:10:49: them?

00:10:50: They have kept themselves safe, they have kept themselves far from it.

00:10:54: The Maduro have defended it, they have paid it with their lives.

00:10:59: I already told you, the military leadership has not sworn blood on the regime.

00:11:06: They have found it, they have defended corruption, they have power and influence.

00:11:14: And that will now be a I think for the transition phase, Trump has talked about this for years, which could take a long time, it depends on how they work together.

00:11:28: The Americans are not allowed to work together.

00:11:32: The Americans don't offer the stars directly.

00:11:35: That could be a consequence for them.

00:11:37: They know that, too.

00:11:39: They want to bring oil to the market.

00:11:42: They also want to develop their own sector.

00:11:44: In the end, they are interested in business, in their own, and this is fragile.

00:11:49: And that's why it's a... Fragile system, that there will be the next years to be balanced.

00:11:55: And to be balanced, the Americans in Washington also have to.

00:12:00: Because of this, there is a lot to be said.

00:12:01: How far are you going with your demands?

00:12:03: Because the further you go, with your demands on Delcey Rodríguez, the more you may bring them into danger against the security forces.

00:12:10: So in the end, you have to bring it all under a hat.

00:12:14: And I also talked about this with Oliver Stünkel.

00:12:16: He is a German-Brazilian political scientist from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who researches on Latin America and geopolitics.

00:12:25: And he says exactly that.

00:12:26: Yes, so how stable Rodríguez can rule depends on what kind of requirements the Trump government puts on them.

00:12:32: And if they go beyond oil, then that could be a danger, as you just said, for the fringes of influential military, and thus become a problem for Desi Rodríguez.

00:12:43: The origin of this privilege, the economic privilege, does not only come from legal activities.

00:12:51: For example, there are more general intensities than in the USA.

00:12:55: And that is part of this very complex power structure in which one general, for example, is responsible for distribution of rice and then can sell almost ten percent on the black market and therefore has great economic privileges.

00:13:10: One other is the illegal gold mining, for example, in the south of the country, is active.

00:13:16: So these privileges must, from the perspective

00:13:21: of the

00:13:22: army, the Venezuelan generals, they have to keep up.

00:13:26: Some of these privileges have also been used in drug trafficking.

00:13:31: Should Trump, del sirodrigues, demand stronger drug trafficking, then it can lead to the general, at some point, are no longer satisfied with the Orange Mall, with the Americans.

00:13:45: And that can lead to resistance.

00:13:48: It can lead

00:13:49: to resistance, that's true.

00:13:50: But I would like to remind you again, I had just said, for a long time, on a longer term, a new democratic construction is not a way past.

00:14:00: For this, the majority of the Venezuelans are simply unhappy with him.

00:14:06: system and is, of course, relieved that at least the leader is gone, if the view into the unwarranted future is also full of worries.

00:14:15: But you have to remember that this is not a democratic project.

00:14:19: from an American point of view.

00:14:22: The most important thing at the moment seems to be access to the oil reserves, access to resources, their export, their availability, as well

00:14:36: as the United States.

00:14:38: And that's water on the mills of the critics of US politics in the region, especially many people who were and are part of this Bolivian chavismo revolution.

00:14:49: And that's an incredibly uncomfortable position for Delsi Rodríguez, who is the new leader of this movement and is now expected to cooperate with the imperial USA.

00:15:04: We talked about this with our Latin America correspondent, Tiak Brüwela.

00:15:11: I think Rodríguez himself comes from a socialist past and he is considered an ideologically strong person.

00:15:25: But if you take a closer look at this woman, she also has bio clothes and bags and I don't know what and has children who study abroad, which is good, so anti-capitalistic, then they are not.

00:15:38: Yes, Klaus, what do you think?

00:15:39: Is this going to be a problem for the Maduro regime?

00:15:42: Or is the narrative of the socialist Bolivarian Revolution so exposed that no one is bothered by the contradiction?

00:15:50: So I'm sure that it's under the supporters of Maduro, so to speak, the simple people who have gone to the streets and who actually keep up with it in large numbers, even if they are also in the minority, that there is still this impulse, this Bolivarian, so to speak, revolution, horror, that he still has power and is also connected to the anti-American sentiment that this still plays a role.

00:16:19: The leadership is authoritarian, pragmatic, politically interested, she is interested in the enrichment, that's why.

00:16:30: They are all corrupt people who play a role.

00:16:35: And they also know how to estimate their limits.

00:16:40: At the beginning you said that there are other regimes in Latin America, left regimes.

00:16:46: They all saw what happened.

00:16:48: And we can remember that a few months ago, when Trump wanted to bring illegal immigrants to Colombia and the Colombian president, a leftist.

00:16:58: Trump said, listen, we can do it differently.

00:17:01: And one day later the planes were allowed to land.

00:17:04: So power plays a role, power and drugs work.

00:17:10: Now, after seeing all of them, it was something the United States was able to do and what they also do.

00:17:17: They put together resources and they make spectacular execution actions, as you almost know in the film.

00:17:27: I don't think we can forget that.

00:17:30: How good this

00:17:33: strategy is long and medium term.

00:17:35: I will talk about that with you in a moment.

00:17:38: Let's draw a short line.

00:17:39: So Washington seems to have a lot to do with continuity and stability.

00:17:43: Because, of course, the oil supply in the country can only be exploited if it doesn't sink into chaos.

00:17:50: how closely the history of the country with which the oil sector is hidden.

00:17:55: That's what our colleague Sandra Klüber once again summarized for us.

00:17:59: And that's what we're hearing now.

00:18:01: It starts in the year of nineteen hundred and fourteen.

00:18:10: At the time, geologists discovered oil in Venezuela for the first time in the state of Zulia.

00:18:20: In the same year, the production began.

00:18:22: Soon international companies will enter.

00:18:24: Already in the year, in the year, in the year, in the year, in the year, in the year, in the year, in the year, in the year, in the year, in the year, Almost a quarter of the Venezuelan has now fled abroad.

00:18:50: It is called the flow of resources.

00:18:54: In many countries, large landowners do not have long-term prosperity, but lack of economy, corruption and instability.

00:19:02: But that was not always the case.

00:19:05: First of all, thanks to Venezuela, its oil reserves are an unparalleled rise.

00:19:10: In a few decades, it will become one of the poorest countries in Latin America, the richest country in the entire region.

00:19:17: In the year nineteen sixty, Venezuela founded with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran the influential OPEC, the organization of oil-exporting countries.

00:19:30: In nineteen seventy-three, Arab states hang a oil embargo on Western countries.

00:19:34: The oil fumes will be rusted, which will, first of all, be a mess.

00:19:37: It will soon be politically stricter.

00:19:39: The oil price will be over four times that of night.

00:19:42: For Venezuela, the oil crisis means first of all a rain of money.

00:19:45: The income will be thrown into the high.

00:19:48: In the fall of the year, Karlos Andres Pérez, president of the oil industry, wants to secure the oil wealth for his own country.

00:19:53: In the fall of the year, Karlos Andres Pérez, president of the oil industry, wants to secure the oil wealth for his own country.

00:19:59: In the fall of

00:20:00: the year, Karlos Andres Pérez, president of the oil industry, wants to secure the oil wealth for his own country.

00:20:05: In the fall of

00:20:09: the year, Karlos Andres Pérez, president of the oil industry, wants to secure the oil wealth for his own country.

00:20:14: In the fall of the year, Karlos Andres Pérez, president of the oil industry, wants to secure the oil wealth for his own country.

00:20:20: In the fall of the year, Karlos Andres Pérez, president of the oil industry, wants to secure the oil wealth for his own country.

00:20:29: In the fall of the year, Karlos Andres Pérez, president of the oil industry, wants to secure the oil wealth for his own country.

00:20:35: But there is a problem.

00:20:37: The increasing dependence on the oil industry deprives other economic branches.

00:20:41: As then in the eighties the oil prices fell, Venezuela must be greatly forgiven and social expenses drastically reduced.

00:20:52: The fate of the population died in the Karakazo, an uprising that requires hundreds of deaths in the Karakazo.

00:20:59: In the fall of the year, a young officer came

00:21:04: to power.

00:21:05: Juro delante de Dios.

00:21:08: Juro delante de la patria.

00:21:11: Juro delante de mi pueblo.

00:21:12: Hugo Chávez is

00:21:13: probably

00:21:14: the most influential president of Venezuela.

00:21:16: He is up until his death in the top of the country in the year of the death of his political party until today.

00:21:24: According to him, Chavismo is a mixture of socialist ideals and Latin American nationalism.

00:21:31: Chávez wants more social justice and less poverty.

00:21:35: He also puts it on a state oil industry.

00:21:39: Even under Chavez, the income increases.

00:21:42: First of all, the money is invested in large social programs, the Missiones.

00:21:48: The lives of millions of Venezuelans are improved by this, they are being raised.

00:21:56: But the Chavismo also fails economically at the state over-regulation.

00:22:01: In December of the year, in the meantime, Chavez is known as his successor, Nicolás Maduro.

00:22:07: The Venezuelan problems are increasingly rising in its presidency.

00:22:11: In the office of the President of the United States, the country is still earning about two and a half million barrels of oil per day by the end of the year.

00:22:21: But the state-owned company PDVSA is already heavily affected.

00:22:24: Many experts have left the country in the meantime.

00:22:28: Industry systems are marauding.

00:22:30: In the year of the President of the United States, Venezuelans are experiencing a hyperinflation.

00:22:35: Venezuela's economy is at the brink of inflation, and by the end of this year, it is likely that the international currency fund will be able to cover unimaginable tens of millions of percent.

00:22:46: Maduro is struggling with

00:22:47: power.

00:22:47: Only the right of choice is changing.

00:22:49: The election results will be manipulated later.

00:22:52: The USA hanged under Obama for the first time sanctions against Venezuela in the fall of the year.

00:23:01: In the fall of the year, the U.S.

00:23:02: shrinks massively and increases the pressure on the oil sector.

00:23:06: The oil production is currently at just over six hundred thousand barrels per day.

00:23:11: At the same time, trade and corruption are increasingly increasing.

00:23:17: Today the oil production is at something more than one million barrels per day.

00:23:22: Most of them go to China.

00:23:23: Despite the difficult circumstances, foreign companies in Venezuela are still working.

00:23:30: All above the U.S.

00:23:32: American company Chevron, which has been active in Venezuela for over a hundred years.

00:23:39: He received a special permission from the U.S.

00:23:42: Ministry of Finance in December and is allowed to import oil from Venezuela despite the sanctions.

00:23:49: According to Trump, after the collapse of Maduro, many other U.S.

00:23:51: companies will soon be added.

00:23:54: The future of Venezuela is probably as uncertain as ever.

00:23:58: However, it is determined that it will depend on the reconstruction of the oil industry.

00:24:11: Ölförderung in Venezuela wieder auf alte Höhen bringen.

00:24:14: Das ist wirklich eine Mammutaufgabe, die jetzt absolut im Zentrum steht.

00:24:18: Glaubst du denn an eine Renaissance der venezuelanischen Ölindustrie?

00:24:24: The Venezuelan oil industry would have needed it.

00:24:27: Under what conditions would the American companies be willing to invest a lot of money there?

00:24:36: We already talked about that.

00:24:38: It has to be safe, it has to be possible to repair money and so on and so forth.

00:24:44: Safety in every way plays a huge role to set the country in motion.

00:24:50: So the oil infrastructure and then the oil production to increase excessively.

00:24:57: That's not possible overnight.

00:24:58: You can't just turn on the oil hand or close it again, as you imagine it to be.

00:25:03: That takes years until geological conditions are created to do that.

00:25:06: That means the transition.

00:25:10: It may take years until it works halfway.

00:25:14: This is something that the oil companies from America will let go of time to check.

00:25:23: This physical security has to be verified, the legal security has to be given, etc.

00:25:28: And the government in Caracas, Delta Rodriguez and the other figures there, they have to... In fact, something like a half-way virtual policy is brought to such a common place.

00:25:44: Reliable.

00:25:44: Some of them will disappoint in their camp.

00:25:48: The left populists will disappoint.

00:25:49: But it will be necessary so that the money does not disappear somewhere.

00:25:55: Trump said that the Venezuelan people should profit from it.

00:25:59: You will see whether it is just a talk or whether it actually comes down somewhere.

00:26:06: In the blog, the information blog, there was an important sentence that you can notice especially in oil-fired countries in Africa.

00:26:14: Oil possession is a curse.

00:26:17: Because it shouldn't come to the good, it should come to the good of the people, but in the deep pockets.

00:26:24: rich and corrupt, for decades.

00:26:27: And in the end, the oil infrastructure has come to an end.

00:26:33: Marauder was there.

00:26:35: And the export is in.

00:26:38: In jeder hinsicht ein Ersehen.

00:26:39: Also man muss ja noch mal vor Augen führen um wie viel Geld es da geht.

00:26:43: Ich habe eine Studie gefunden.

00:26:44: Da steht drin bis zwanzig vierzig müssen ungefähr hundert drei und achtzig Milliarden u.s.

00:26:48: Dollar investiert werden um das auf alte Produktionsstände zurückzubringen.

00:26:53: Und man muss ja vor Augen führen dass wir aktuell auch einen relativ niedrigen Ölpreis haben also um die Sechzig Dollar was natürlich dann irgendwie dazu führt dass sich das noch mal weniger rechnet.

00:27:04: Let's talk about the position of the USA.

00:27:07: That's the core of the story for me.

00:27:09: I really liked the kids when I saw Trump's statement.

00:27:14: Trump says we will run Venezuela.

00:27:16: And I thought... We zur Hölle wollen die das?

00:27:20: man?

00:27:20: ich meine ja die haben irgendwelche Flugzeugträger und das war alles sehr beeindruckend mit Kalkas und so weiter und sofort.

00:27:26: aber die haben ja nicht einen einzigen Soldaten in Venezuela selbst.

00:27:30: das wissen wir nicht genau.

00:27:31: das wissen wir nicht genau.

00:27:32: okay

00:27:32: aber nicht großflächen das ist möglich

00:27:33: As always, the country is not occupied.

00:27:35: And Trump seems to have a lot of hope in oil companies.

00:27:43: That also tells a lot about the crisis group.

00:27:46: But whether they play along, as Trump suggests, that's not

00:27:51: clear for a long time.

00:27:54: I think nobody has ever tried

00:27:58: that in this form.

00:27:58: I can't remember a situation in which my country has tried to manage the internal opportunities of another country without putting out a dozen thousand troops and putting it out.

00:28:09: Trump hopes that the oil companies will take over that, but they say... Wait a second.

00:28:14: You want us to go back in and put all our money in there?

00:28:17: This is an unstable situation with an authoritarian regime and without legal security.

00:28:22: What do we have of it?

00:28:23: We don't earn anything until we actually export oil.

00:28:27: And there are many other options where we can invest our money.

00:28:30: So let's first clarify the exact

00:28:33: business conditions.

00:28:35: Let's see what the terms and conditions are here.

00:28:38: Klaus, how does it look?

00:28:39: Have you already bought a Chevron axel, plus five percent since January?

00:28:43: the third?

00:28:44: My Axel portfolio is described and home is close.

00:28:47: Okay, but do you think that

00:28:49: would make sense?

00:28:50: So the question is of course... Will the oil companies enter big or not?

00:28:54: Whether they enter big, I

00:28:57: don't know, but they will enter.

00:28:59: I think the boss will be the first prominent company in the context of Venezuela to do something.

00:29:07: With the run, we will lead this country.

00:29:10: There is no plan.

00:29:12: There will be no American pro-consul.

00:29:14: For example, how it was in Baghdad.

00:29:17: How it was in Afghanistan, but above all in Baghdad.

00:29:21: And that was also all neck-and-neck.

00:29:22: That was all more wishful thinking than a serious re-establishing government that could support itself on a large military presence.

00:29:32: But he gives the instructions?

00:29:35: And then the characters in Karakas will have to execute what he thinks.

00:29:42: That means run the country.

00:29:45: So he won't intervene in a big way, what the regio's everyday needs in some executive form, but he will make the upper view as it is, for example, with the gas.

00:29:58: The topic of gas consumption, I will then suffer the warning wheel, or we will see what they do down there.

00:30:02: And then I don't see it, hook it up, or I'll put it with a veto.

00:30:07: And that's how I could imagine.

00:30:09: They think that it will be the case in Caracas.

00:30:14: You just talked about the central role that Trump takes as a person.

00:30:19: It probably also depends on the fact that he or less probably decides personally what happens with this oil money or not.

00:30:26: That means that I would also doubt whether that really comes to the end of the Venezuelan or the US Americans and not only his bell, so to speak, which in any case ... Or what does that mean?

00:30:38: in any case, but what seems to fall behind so far is the democratic opposition.

00:30:43: We have already addressed it.

00:30:44: Yes, the topic of democratization in Venezuela.

00:30:46: I have already heard that you are not so super pessimistic, I think.

00:30:51: But yes.

00:30:52: No, I just wanted to say that this is not the project.

00:30:55: This is not the project.

00:30:55: It is not a neo-conservative project of George W. Bush in Iraq.

00:31:01: Yes.

00:31:01: We

00:31:01: bring you the democracy.

00:31:03: So we are disturbing.

00:31:05: the dictator, change the government and state apparatus, clean up the military, which later turned out to be a big, big mistake.

00:31:14: You have to say so.

00:31:15: The deportation was against Schnurstrax in the big, lost terror campaign in this

00:31:22: country.

00:31:22: And then ISIS.

00:31:24: And then ISIS, yes, exactly.

00:31:26: That means sabotage, anarchization.

00:31:30: It's not about that.

00:31:37: Venezuela is a country with democratic experience.

00:31:40: They don't have to be arrogant or... with a large North American patronage to teach a few democratic lessons.

00:31:49: They have already done some experience with it and it's not strange that it falls from the northern sky, so to speak.

00:31:59: But that's not the plan.

00:32:02: You can also use oil with autocratine.

00:32:06: Absolutely.

00:32:06: I would like to put an optimistic argument against it, so to speak.

00:32:09: You could also say that democratization has to be... That's

00:32:14: a long-term view.

00:32:15: I said that.

00:32:16: You're right.

00:32:16: But so to speak, big investments can be done, so the keyword of law and security.

00:32:20: And it's not just about oil, but it's also about the topic of migration.

00:32:24: So Venezuelans should return to Venezuela.

00:32:28: They shouldn't even fly from there.

00:32:30: And of course there is also hope for changes in the Venezuelan population.

00:32:37: I have contacted a young woman in Venezuela.

00:32:41: I really can't tell you much about her because she is afraid of the regime, only that she is a German-Venezuelan woman and currently in Caracas.

00:32:50: We call her Anna.

00:32:51: We have falsified her voice and she is reported by a divided voice in Venezuela.

00:32:57: I

00:32:57: think overall the voice is a mix of hope and work.

00:33:01: I hope because it is the first time in the twenty-seven years that people can imagine a future without a dictatorship, a future where the country blooms and a future that is a bit similar to the great country that our elders and grandparents used to live in.

00:33:20: But also careful, because the real power relationships are still uncertain and no one knows exactly how the transition to real-time democracy will look like.

00:33:31: And it would be said that the rollercoaster sisters do not understand each other well with the lack of video.

00:33:38: And that there is a lot of tension within the government right now.

00:33:42: But Venezuelans are just waiting, hopeful and careful for further events.

00:33:47: Yes,

00:33:47: Klaus, what is your best... Tip.

00:33:50: How does the transition look like?

00:33:52: Does he come?

00:33:52: Does he not come?

00:33:53: Does he come in years?

00:33:54: Does he come in thirty days?

00:33:55: That was once such a time horizon that was

00:33:58: called.

00:33:59: There is no prognosis.

00:34:01: That would be reliable.

00:34:02: And to imagine some time horizon.

00:34:08: And to define.

00:34:09: The situation will calm down, I think.

00:34:13: But that does not mean that the internal contradictions of the system are all removed.

00:34:19: That does not mean that all hopes must be given to democratization.

00:34:24: But it will calm down a little and then you will continue to see.

00:34:27: It is still interesting that the gallant figures of the opposition in these days are really on the side.

00:34:40: Whether the people who live in Madrid, for example, the opposition leaders, whether they want to return, whether they risk it, under what circumstances.

00:34:50: One is, of course, the transition from the dictatorship to a lively... so to speak.

00:34:59: dynamic democracy is a heavy undertaking and one must not imagine that the old elites, so to speak, the forces that have profited from the old regime, made the staff for it, base their wealth on it, that they

00:35:18: will just leave.

00:35:19: First of all, they actually have this action of the Americans in Karakass.

00:35:23: Genutzt um noch repressiva vorzugehen gegen die Bevölkerungswohnen zum Beispiel mehr als ein Dutzend Journalisten zumindest kurzfristig verhaftet und Anna die frau die wir gerade gehört haben die auch vor Ort ist hat auch von zunehmender repression berichtet.

00:35:39: das ist tatsächlich auch der grund warum wir sie hier im podcast nicht identifizieren.

00:35:43: innerhalb des landes kann man sich nicht laut freuen.

00:35:46: You were rather afraid and in the last few days there were armed groups on the streets who simply took your phone and searched your WhatsApp to see if you had anything in your chat that was against Maduro, against the regime.

00:36:02: Then you would be called a terrorist and you would be arrested and brought to a police station.

00:36:08: We just

00:36:08: described a bit of an optimistic scenario.

00:36:12: In other words, you could also be afraid that in the past, at least, pressure has always led to the Venezuelan regime being together.

00:36:19: There were many protests and the regime has always held together and has never beaten this protest.

00:36:24: Do you see a danger that the strike against Maduro, the regime, at the end of

00:36:33: the day, is even strengthening?

00:36:34: It will hold together.

00:36:35: In any case, the forces that are ideologically motivated and most of them have benefited.

00:36:40: But again, what I said earlier, the military, especially the military top, has no bloodstains on Maduro and the whole system.

00:36:51: They can arrange themselves.

00:36:54: The new interim president, Delta Rodriguez, will definitely counter the Americans.

00:37:00: That means it takes a bit of pressure, it takes the tension out.

00:37:05: The Americans are probably satisfied.

00:37:07: They have achieved what they want.

00:37:09: And then you will see if it can be done with the oil as an executive.

00:37:16: The skepticism of the American oil company is justified.

00:37:19: They want to know what they expect and what circumstances they can engage in the country massively.

00:37:24: This is one side of the medallion.

00:37:27: But it depends on how the situation in the inner Venezuela is.

00:37:31: Everything will influence each other.

00:37:33: The whole thing was an operation, the execution.

00:37:38: Madurus, which was planned over months.

00:37:41: The resources, concentration, military art, and the money that was spent on it, that was not only a matter of a visit to Christmas, but that was prepared over months, so to speak.

00:37:58: So you already thought about it.

00:37:59: And the refugees, the people from Venezuela, in the crisis years, under the impression of repression, they will of course only return from the United States, not only from Colombia, or from Mexico, or from Chile, if they expect relationships there, which for them are still so attractive that they can expect a good life politically and economically and family there.

00:38:28: a better

00:38:29: life.

00:38:29: And an index, a finger, shows that it might go in a good direction.

00:38:33: In fact, the report that came yesterday, which surprised me, that the Venezuelan regime apparently begins to free political prisoners.

00:38:42: According to the whole of the Crisis Group, it is a surprising but very encouraging sign.

00:38:49: It's really, really surprising to see what's happening because, I mean, even as we speak, there are hundreds of political prisoners being released.

00:38:57: Right now there is a very surprising development, because while we are talking, the regime leaves many political prisoners free, and that means that there will be a political opening.

00:39:06: The regime does not want to do that, really not.

00:39:09: But it seems as if they will be forced to do so.

00:39:12: Roche Rodriguez, the chairman of the National Assembly, speaks of reform, economic reform, but also about the election system, for example.

00:39:18: It seems that there is really strong pressure from Washington that Caracas has to prove that the political situation will actually change.

00:39:26: We are under really strong day-by-day pressure from the US to prove that things are going to be different.

00:39:34: an opening.

00:39:35: And we all know how it all started.

00:39:54: But I mean, it

00:39:57: really contradicts the interests of the regime.

00:40:02: So to free a political opening and political prisoners.

00:40:04: The regime wants to

00:40:05: survive.

00:40:05: And the power wants to survive.

00:40:06: And then you have to adapt to how you act tactically.

00:40:11: And now there is a top-up.

00:40:12: There is a boss, or as JD Vance once said in Munich, a new sheriff is in town.

00:40:18: Yes, there is one, and he does that too.

00:40:21: And he doesn't just look at it, he says, he doesn't just curse, he doesn't care about the people, but he says, friend, if he doesn't parry, then we just made a preview.

00:40:30: But

00:40:32: my question is obviously, as the whole thing says, there is pressure from Washington, otherwise these people would not be released.

00:40:38: So my question is, does the Trump government have more of a democracy in Venezuela than we thought, even in our debate so far?

00:40:44: I

00:40:44: don't know.

00:40:45: They will try, so to speak, to take the pressure out of the castle, because there is pressure.

00:40:52: after such a spectacular action, where the power relations, the power relations, may not be completely overlooked, who controls and does what the people do, is a reasonable story.

00:41:10: And the regime was not only fixed on this Maduro, on the Bolivarian, the second Bolivarian leader.

00:41:20: and on them, but they will all be seen as they survive politically, commercially, with corruption or whatever.

00:41:31: So let's draw a line under this theme of democratization.

00:41:34: We don't know, but at the moment it doesn't look very terrible.

00:41:39: I think you can maybe summarize the debate.

00:41:41: I would like to go back to a other big topics.

00:41:44: Because at the beginning it was called, what we see here is regime change.

00:41:49: I don't think it's like that, because the regime is still on the power.

00:41:53: But that can change.

00:41:55: So let's say Delcey Rodríguez can't deliver what the Americans want, because otherwise she gets problems with other power centers in the regime.

00:42:04: Or let's say there's even an open power struggle in Venezuela.

00:42:09: Which options do the Americans still have?

00:42:12: So don't they have to?

00:42:13: to end the issue and actually go into it for a full?

00:42:17: on regime change?

00:42:17: I will say very briefly that there is an important term in November of this year to start in the United States.

00:42:25: And these are the interim elections.

00:42:28: It can be that the Republicans will lose the Republican House to the opposition, the Washington opposition, the Democrats.

00:42:36: And that already has an important date for Donald Trump.

00:42:39: And that he would risk a military operation that would be connected to the use of ground troops, even in the so-called rear court of the United States.

00:42:53: It seems to me to be very keen to believe.

00:42:56: It seems to me to be keen to be in the case.

00:43:01: And everything would be fundamental.

00:43:04: on what he said so far.

00:43:06: So no regime change, no nation-building, no new wars, no new intervention.

00:43:12: Yes, this intervention, you send a few planes to bomb something, it makes a spectacular reaction.

00:43:18: In the use of deadly violence, it seems to make the president happy, that's his new favorite toy, but a large-scale military intervention.

00:43:30: that the country is almost three times as big as the Federal Republic.

00:43:35: You have to make that up again.

00:43:37: The oil reserves are distributed disparately in the country.

00:43:41: That's not all in one region.

00:43:43: That's all a bit complicated.

00:43:45: Even a so erratic president like Trump probably still has a leftist understanding to not do something like that.

00:43:56: I would... Right now, people like Dersio Grises, his brother, The power politicians, the survivors, will know where they are going to give up, or that they will think about it, what connections they have to make internally, where they have to give up, where they have to be in-political.

00:44:18: I think they will try everything, so to speak, to set up the American trial, I would say again, to set up any form of peace.

00:44:30: And then you will see what contradictions there are, whether that is possible

00:44:34: or not, what then happens.

00:44:35: You just said that you don't believe, especially with regard to the midterms, that Trump has appetite for ground troops in Venezuela.

00:44:42: And for me, that's a very interesting question.

00:44:47: I think if the USA are not ready to send troops, then I would argue that they are much stronger than they really are.

00:44:57: And that their leverage against the Venezuelan government is not as big as it looks right now.

00:45:02: Because you said it right, great impressive military strike.

00:45:06: I

00:45:06: didn't say great impressive

00:45:08: military strike.

00:45:08: Without doubt, but they are still such a huge military strike.

00:45:13: Risiko ja und sie sind wahnsinnig unpopulär.

00:45:15: in den USA muss man auch sagen.

00:45:16: selbst jetzt nach dieser operation ist das polling immer noch desaströs für diese ganz aktion.

00:45:22: also mein argument wäre die sind nicht beliebig wiederholbar und das relativiert doch so ein bisschen diese bedrohung durch das U.S.

00:45:30: military.

00:45:31: and that means that the Venezuelan region has more space for action than you think.

00:45:35: Because they really control, they don't do the USA.

00:45:37: Yes, that

00:45:38: may be.

00:45:38: But if I were the new interim president and imagine that Mr.

00:45:43: Maduro and his wife would be taken out of the bedroom and then transferred to New York, that would impress me.

00:45:51: In any

00:45:52: case, but the question is, how often can the USA do that?

00:45:55: How often do they do that?

00:45:56: According to what the goals are, even the Colombian president, who has already confronted himself with the corresponding threats from Trump's side, the Mexican president, the regime in color.

00:46:10: I really have to imagine whether they are all sleeping well, I don't know.

00:46:15: Let's think about how the Israelis in the past year did the operation in Tehran.

00:46:21: against Iran, in which they almost turned the entire military leadership personnel off.

00:46:25: In fact, in front of the house door.

00:46:28: This is an incredible success of the secret service, with the cooperation.

00:46:34: All these leaders are warned today, what actors who have the power to do this can actually do and are ready to do.

00:46:45: I don't think you should underestimate that.

00:46:48: They are all warned.

00:46:50: Okay, so next, nevertheless, if Daisy Rodriguez can't deliver, then the Americans are forced to put it in one or another form

00:47:01: again.

00:47:01: Then we might use a pro-console.

00:47:03: Yes,

00:47:03: exactly.

00:47:04: And then we will, so to speak, with the full.

00:47:05: on regime change, as you know it from the history of the USA, where I had to think directly.

00:47:17: I had to think about Iraq.

00:47:18: That was a disaster because the USA wanted to build a complete democracy.

00:47:26: They wanted to destroy old elites.

00:47:28: They dissolved the army.

00:47:30: We talked about this briefly.

00:47:31: It was guerrilla war and ISIS.

00:47:35: But I don't think the USA will repeat this mistake.

00:47:40: The old elites are in place.

00:47:41: who are the old elites are still at the place and place, whatever the security apparatus is, and probably also the entire government apparatus.

00:47:52: But that brings us to an important question.

00:47:56: In any case, a change like this needs to be made to the complete elite exchange.

00:48:03: We also made the experience in Germany.

00:48:06: In other countries, also in Eastern Europe, some elites have declared themselves to be different or have gone after other uses, which used to have been done in the past by successful economic people and so on.

00:48:20: And what do you do with those who support the ideological regime, who have benefited from it, and who still have, you said, Doro II.

00:48:31: What do you do with the idea?

00:48:36: This is a complicated process.

00:48:40: There is an extension, there is an extension, there is a new beginning on a new institutional and constitutional basis.

00:48:50: These are long-term processes.

00:48:52: That's why it's a long commitment.

00:48:55: That's all the reason why the Americans were so long.

00:48:57: Until they saw it, there's no more spec.

00:49:00: We lose a lot of people because of violence, because of terror, and so on.

00:49:05: Our people's cost a lot of money.

00:49:10: Blood and treasure, as it was discussed in America.

00:49:11: I don't think Trump will do that.

00:49:16: So of course it's the same as with all interventions about the hearts and minds of the Venezuelan.

00:49:23: And there is the risk that the mood is spinning, that the intervention of the Americans can lead to too much nationalism.

00:49:32: That also told me Oliver Stünkel from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

00:49:39: consequences can be very negative for the USA, because the rhetoric that can already fire nationalism in Venezuela.

00:49:49: To say, we are there, we did it to have access

00:49:54: to oil,

00:49:56: will potentially strengthen the enemy of the USA in Latin America.

00:49:59: And to the success of someone like Hugo Chavez, who may lead him for maybe three, four, five years, who then wants to nationalize the oil industry again.

00:50:08: And there I would like to play a note right after that.

00:50:11: That is, so to speak, the one point of view.

00:50:12: It could lead to nationalism and to a backlash against the USA.

00:50:16: But again, we will hear again very briefly, Ana from Karakas, which is almost reported by an

00:50:27: oppressive impression.

00:50:28: There are statements saying that they want to control the oil and land.

00:50:31: There are mixed opinions.

00:50:32: Many people react carefully.

00:50:35: They don't want Venezuela to become friends again.

00:50:37: But many people see it as a hope.

00:50:39: Because if this international help is fair and transparent, they can contribute to reducing corruption and abuse of power.

00:50:50: The oil from Venezuela, which was used in the last twenty-seven years, I could always imagine that this is exactly the case, because the oil solutions are not the big one.

00:51:08: in the majority of the population.

00:51:10: That is, so to speak, among the parts of the major cliques.

00:51:20: It can't get worse for the majority of the population.

00:51:31: And it can be the same as the lady from Caracas described.

00:51:40: The people say, no, it has been cut off.

00:51:44: And we are now at the beginning of a new path, which we can't see for a long time.

00:51:50: But it can't get worse.

00:51:52: It's more like, we've already mentioned some examples.

00:51:55: which give ground to hope, liberalization, first and most likely liberalization, that it will not be so bad.

00:52:05: What the professor mentioned was that anti-Americanism is strengthened in other countries.

00:52:12: So, in terms of the affected themselves, maybe there is a careful, a careful return of optimism.

00:52:20: And that is probably the right attitude.

00:52:23: to this whole development, whose dimensions we still can't see, and whose effects are also currently unclear, that in countries like Colombia, in Mexico, in Brazil, there are also parts of the political system, now on a hard, a slightly sharper anti-American rhetoric.

00:52:46: That won't surprise me.

00:52:47: That's what you'd expect.

00:52:49: Sure.

00:52:49: If you

00:52:51: listen to this Donro doctrine... So the claims of the Americans, so to speak, in the Western Hemisphere, to have that, there is now the introduction of Maduro, so to speak, the most obvious and very scary, scary expression of it.

00:53:09: There is no wonder that the countries in the region look critically at it.

00:53:14: Oliver Stünkel told me that many countries in the region with a look at Venezuela are actually very divided.

00:53:21: Do you wish that this is going well or that this is going in the right direction?

00:53:26: In fact, it would be very positive for Latin American states to have a stable and rich Venezuela.

00:53:33: Because the neighboring countries of Venezuela had to pay a high price for the Venezuelan collapse, thousands and thousands of migrants, in countries like Chile, Colombia, Ecuador.

00:53:46: In other words, it would be positive to have a stable Venezuela.

00:53:51: But now, because of the concern that Trump doesn't do anything similar in other countries, it is almost better for the other Latin American countries, if Venezuela is a very frustrating experience for the USA, to deal with it for so long so that it doesn't happen to lead to a similar situation in other countries.

00:54:10: What do you mean by this strategy?

00:54:13: To threaten government bosses with violence if they don't do what Washington wants and to openly say that you are coming for the budget?

00:54:24: If it seems to me that it works at

00:54:26: least briefly, otherwise where?

00:54:28: Yes, I would call this regional neo-imperialism.

00:54:32: Of course, it's not a nice thing.

00:54:35: It has a very, very serious impact on other conflicts and regions in the world.

00:54:43: It's not good.

00:54:43: What will a president like Lula do?

00:54:47: Ideologically, with Trump over Kreuz?

00:54:50: But the relations are no longer so bad.

00:54:52: They are not so bad.

00:54:53: In Chile, there are new conservative presidents, right-wing conservatives.

00:54:57: We don't even need to talk about Argentina.

00:54:59: They are all ideologically, so to speak.

00:55:01: Colombia

00:55:02: will probably also be elected as a conservative.

00:55:04: They are bound to Trump's line of ideologically.

00:55:07: Trump has helped the Argentine president in some ways to re-evaluate.

00:55:11: They all have to recognize and will recognize from their own interest but also in a personal way, that in America is now played according to other rules.

00:55:26: Hard power politics, hard, brutal, interest politics, people's rights, as we have heard, is a kindness that no longer plays a role in this world.

00:55:35: That is very terrible, at least from our point of view, from the German-European perspective.

00:55:42: But there they will all take knowledge.

00:55:44: And I don't think that in Latin America that the Maduro regime had so many attachments.

00:55:53: I would still like to come back to the fact that, of course, Trump can now avoid success in short term, but in the middle and long term, of course, this strategy leads to the fact that many countries, with many governments, are also joking and, of course, many countries think that it may be smarter not to put all eggs in the USA corp, but also where to buy, where to trade, where to buy weapons.

00:56:20: And I also talked to Oliver Stünkel about this.

00:56:26: But we also have to say that in conversations that are not public, politicians and also parts of the South American military can already think about what they can do to reduce their dependency, especially in the security sector of the USA.

00:56:44: That can mean less weapons systems from America, maybe more weapons systems from other regions, more investment in local production.

00:56:55: That also means that in the technological field, not so much from the USA, maybe in certain areas, not all sensitive information with the USA.

00:57:05: That means there are quite specific debates in countries.

00:57:10: But while the countries are also thinking about whether

00:57:15: they have such a close relationship with a regime like Iran, such as the one on the Batmattur, he didn't

00:57:23: help much.

00:57:24: He

00:57:24: didn't help much.

00:57:26: Also, the partner Ruslan has, so to speak, and has not been able to use or want much, except for mandatory, rhetorical interference.

00:57:34: Of course, this leads to a counter-reaction.

00:57:41: It has this harsh, violent approach of the United States.

00:57:47: And the claim, the rule of law and the power claim.

00:57:50: That's quite clear.

00:57:51: But, and that's why it's also important that in Europe, like this continent, the Middle America, South America, I'm talking about more cruisers.

00:58:01: that plays a big role this week.

00:58:02: We need to be more attentive.

00:58:07: We can win partners there.

00:58:10: But the partners also know, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, others, that the Western hemisphere in American world politics Geo-politically, geo-economically, plays a much larger role than in the past decades, where the American world politics is very strong.

00:58:35: Let's say what was called in the Bush years, the Greater Middle East, was concentrated.

00:58:41: That is reduced.

00:58:42: And there the new, in their own countries, is the new awareness, that the Americans want to force partners, to force partnerships.

00:58:55: That's a very ambitious method.

00:58:58: It can go backwards, but... I say that again, the signal is set.

00:59:03: You just talked about partners that have the South American countries.

00:59:07: You talked about Iran and Russia with regard to Maduro, which is absolutely right.

00:59:13: But I think we have to talk about an elephant in the room, and that's China.

00:59:17: Because with this Donro doctrine, it's also very central.

00:59:21: I don't think it's going to be named in the national security strategy.

00:59:24: But of course it's about China being forced out of South America.

00:59:30: And I wanted to know from Oliver Stünkel whether he believes that this is a realistic goal, to force China out of the region.

00:59:39: And Mr.

00:59:39: Stünkel says, follow this.

00:59:41: So actually, that's not a realistic goal.

00:59:44: Because Trump has already practiced pressure on several countries during his first presidential mandate.

00:59:52: Latin America and demanded that they do not use Huawei when building their five-g telecommunications networks.

01:00:02: And at that time, no country has given up.

01:00:06: All of them have used Chinese technology because it is cheaper and because China is just an important partner.

01:00:14: And because the argument is to be careful with the Chinese in South America not taken so seriously because, of course, due to the historical situation, the USA

01:00:25: is

01:00:25: considered to be the main source of danger.

01:00:28: If

01:00:29: we talk about the new, the newly polished Monroe Doctrine, the Don Rowe Doctrine, whether it has limits, I wouldn't even talk about it.

01:00:39: But I would think that such a campaign like Chinese control over a critical infrastructure, as we would say today, about the Panama Canal, that this is no longer possible or is no longer accepted.

01:00:54: And with which methods this is still, so to speak, ended, I think that this will come.

01:01:00: That Venezuela, I guess most of it, will continue to be exported to China.

01:01:09: I think that's against it.

01:01:10: Then we think, who is the largest?

01:01:16: That comes from the Gulf, where Trump has done a lot of business.

01:01:22: UAE, Qatar, gas, Saudi Arabia.

01:01:26: That's how it is.

01:01:27: That's how it will stay.

01:01:28: Let's

01:01:29: zoom out again at the end.

01:01:32: We just talked about the Western Hemisphere.

01:01:35: The Donau doctrine has the goal to bring this under American control.

01:01:41: And there is a debate about it.

01:01:43: Is that a broader trend?

01:01:45: We are currently seeing a division of the world in influence spheres.

01:01:51: The USA, according to the Western Hemisphere, Russia, somehow the eurasian mass of land and China, far east.

01:01:59: Do you see this trend?

01:02:00: Do you think that's the case?

01:02:03: That's maybe the... dramatic at this short intervention, from this mini-elite exchange, but still the top of the state is taken under another country, that this is a presidential case.

01:02:21: Legitimate, act, because it is possible, if I am strong, then I can attack a country.

01:02:31: I can support the government and then I can pull the resources under the camp.

01:02:35: That's the president's case.

01:02:36: And of course we think immediately of Russia and Ukraine, which are still other countries in the plan.

01:02:44: The Russian leadership, we think of East Asia, Taiwan in the fall of China.

01:02:50: to think and act in an influence zone that the government is not foreign to Trump.

01:02:59: And that will be reaffirmed.

01:03:00: The power is exerted in its own backyard.

01:03:04: It is then largely interpreted.

01:03:06: Gründand is then also part of what you think is needed from security or geo-economic point of view and who is going to oppose it, then he will get the horn.

01:03:18: to feel the American government.

01:03:20: And that is seen in Beijing, that is seen in China, leadership of countries in the region, which you experience as dangerous, threatening, or even just disgusting, they have to expect that they no longer live politically.

01:03:40: Oliver Stünkel is completely your opinion and I want to talk about it again, but we first hear Mr.

01:03:45: Stünkel.

01:03:45: In the West, it is still the case that a large part of the criticism, for example, of Russia and the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, is about the fact that it was actually a injury to the right of the country.

01:03:58: That means it is still, I think, important to practice diplomatic pressure to criticize something.

01:04:06: I think that this open injury to the right of the people in Venezuela is more difficult.

01:04:12: for the USA or for other European states to criticise future violations of the international law by other nations such as Russia or China.

01:04:22: Yes, so you read a lot of this argument and now bring the opposite argument, because I'm not convinced of that, to be honest.

01:04:28: Because that's what it looks like, that, so to speak, international law and international norms were the ones that used to have the actions of people like Putin or Xi Jinping somehow.

01:04:40: And I would just argue that this wasn't the case, international law.

01:04:44: is not a factor in the considerations of Putin or Xi.

01:04:46: So, quite briefly.

01:04:47: So, Russia has, in the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the

01:05:01: year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year

01:05:03: of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year of the year.

01:05:06: The central factor, they tried it and they burned their fingers.

01:05:09: And when we look at China and Taiwan now, in the end it's all about capacity.

01:05:14: China, it's not about the law, it's about being able to.

01:05:18: And China couldn't be in Taiwan.

01:05:19: If they wanted to do that in Taiwan, they would have to bomb the air defense of the Taiwanese in a day to be able to take someone away in Taipei.

01:05:31: So that wouldn't be a special operation, but it would just be the beginning

01:05:36: of the war?

01:05:37: Well, I can't think of a scenario right now, how that could happen in Taiwan.

01:05:40: I don't want to, either.

01:05:41: But you really said that the international law in the plans of the Russian leadership, the Chinese party leadership, Xi Jinpings, except rhetorically, of course, doesn't play a role.

01:05:59: But now it's legitimized that the American president, so to speak, is leading this to be an example.

01:06:08: And that's for countries like Europe, whose physical, security, whose commercial survival, whose prosperity depends on it, so to speak, on a regular basis.

01:06:18: who are on the borders, on the borders of France or France, how that is, that they, that we depend on that, as the president said, that the world order is not going to be a robbery, in which everyone wants to tear down what he wants to tear down, because he can do that.

01:06:41: I think that's unspeakable.

01:06:42: But that's my point.

01:06:44: Yes, Trump's actions in Venezuela legitimize such things.

01:06:49: She could now say, yes, you do that too.

01:06:51: We go to Taipei and get the president.

01:06:53: If

01:06:53: he's smart, he doesn't do that.

01:06:54: I don't

01:06:54: think he's crazy.

01:06:55: But it's been a day for Manöver to do Taiwan to make enough impression of what you're ready to do.

01:07:02: But

01:07:02: my argument is, he can't.

01:07:04: And that's why this action in Venezuela is not more dangerous

01:07:09: than it was before.

01:07:10: Whether he didn't know that.

01:07:11: I wouldn't put my hands on fire.

01:07:13: And whether it doesn't want to or not.

01:07:14: In any case, Russia did it.

01:07:17: It pays a insanely high price for it.

01:07:22: Again, in the language of the Americans after Iraq, a march in blood and treasure.

01:07:29: A insanely high price.

01:07:31: No matter at all.

01:07:31: It doesn't scare them off to continue doing it.

01:07:34: It costs what it wants.

01:07:34: At the end, we're already

01:07:37: at a long time, but it was just an exciting debate.

01:07:41: Let's close the circle again.

01:07:44: We heard from Stephen Miller at the beginning, who said, we live in a world ruled by strength, power and power.

01:07:53: According to our debate today, we have to give Stephen Miller a right.

01:07:58: The

01:07:58: big actors take it that way.

01:08:01: I don't want to put them all on one level, I don't want to.

01:08:11: But the back of the great power, the back of trading and thinking infrastructure, leads exactly to it.

01:08:20: And that means for a country like Germany, for the other Europeans, that they have to look for partners in the world that still... and that is necessary to make sure that one plays according to the rules, that one does not set the foundation for the people's right to play for the weak.

01:08:45: The people's right is exactly there for the weak and the middle countries, because they are not so strong.

01:08:51: And what do we do when the Americans are serious with Greenland?

01:08:54: If they really want to do something, then we turn on the TV and say it's a bit stupid, honestly.

01:09:00: But that's how it is, because we can't do a lot against it or don't want to.

01:09:06: Because that's our idea, it's overlapped with our performance power.

01:09:10: That the Führer's power of the NATO, in itself, Territorium, is one of the other NATO members, so to speak.

01:09:18: Because otherwise we'll need it.

01:09:20: I mean, the arguments are not so wrong about why the Greenland is important for the United States.

01:09:24: That could be a different rule, right?

01:09:27: Or in China, let's say that the streets of the South Chinese Sea are closed, because they say they have their own interests, they can't drive through, or something like that.

01:09:36: That's a fundamental... Wende und die Klage über die Erosion der Weltordnung, die Klage darüber, dass dem Völkerrecht immer weniger Respekt entgegengebracht wird, sondern das rohe Machtpolitik sozusagen den Gang der Dimmel bestimmen, die ist

01:09:53: berechtigt.

01:09:54: Alles klar, Klaus ernüchtert die Worte.

01:09:56: Zum Schluss.

01:09:57: Aber es hat Spaß gemacht mit

01:09:58: dem.

01:09:58: Es schneidet

01:09:58: auch draußen.

01:09:59: Es ist kalt, ja, elli wirdet.

01:10:01: Also, tausend Dank für deine Zeit.

01:10:02: Es hat großen Spaß gemacht.

01:10:03: Ich danke dir.

01:10:05: That's it for today with FAZ Machtprobe.

01:10:07: Thank you very much for staying with us until the end.

01:10:12: We'll see you next week.

01:10:13: Until then, ciao!